Top 6: The luckiest teams of this weekend

Betting Insider selected 6 teams that, according to the expected goals (xG) model, should not have won this weekend.

Expected goals (xG) are the number of goals that can be expected to be scored based on where and how a shot was taken. We all know that a shot in the six yard box is more likely to go in than a shot from outside the 18. Similarly, a shot taken with the shooter's foot is more likely to score than one taken with his head. We can combine these things - shot location and type - and assign it an "expected goal" value.

For example, the relatively easy tap-in by Kaka was worth 0.93 xG, which means that a shot like that one goes in 93% of the time.

Conversely, this absolute goalazo by David Villa was only worth 0.009 xG, or about 1/111th of a goal. Put another way, a shot from there only goes in once every 111 times it's tried. 

Manchester United — Leicester 2:1

xG score: 1.50 — 1.74

Unfortunate: Romelu Lukaku, 0.42 xG, 0 goals

Orenburg - Lokomotiv 1:0

xG score: 0.18 — 0.73

Rostov — Krylia Sovetov 0:1

XG score:  0.37 — 0.35

Saint-Etienne - Guingamp 2:1

xG score: 0.93 — 1.37

Unfortunate: Thimothee Kolodziejczak, 0.36 xG, 0 goals

Angers — Nimes 3:4

XG score:  2.62 — 1.21

Unfortunate: Flavian Ones 0.27 xG, 0 goals

Nice-Reims 0:1

XG score: 1.03 — 0.27

Unfortunate: Bassem, Srarfi, 0.38 xG, 0 goals