If we consider Albacete’s recent away numbers with the fact that Mallorca averaged 1.66 expected goals for and 1.7 goals for at home during the regular campaign, alongside the fact that the pair shared four goals and 3.18 expected goals when they last met at this venue, then ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ looks like the bet to be on.
Not only are we talking about the best home attack vs the best away attack, but if we look at the recent attacking efforts of both, it’s easy to feel that the possibility of a relatively high-scoring encounter is greater than the current odds suggest. There’s been no shortage of goals in Albacete’s recent away games, with ten goals being scored in their last three on the road, while the underlying numbers are encouraging too. In their last three travelling matches, Albacete have averaged 1.71 expected goals for, while they’ve conceded an average of 2.21.
Similarly, Albacete come into this play-off having been one of Segunda’s best teams away from home during the regular campaign. In fact, only Granada and Malaga matched Albacete for points taken on the road, while no team could better them. Wednesday’s visitors also won more away games than any other team in the division prior to the post-season, winning ten of their 21 travelling matches. That said, they did lose seven times on the road, so they weren’t exactly infallible.
It’s probably fair to say that Mallorca’s efforts at home have been slightly more impressive than Albacete’s on the road, though the market is all too aware of that. At the prices, the bet that stands out is ‘Over 2.5 Goals’.
It’s been an excellent campaign for Mallorca, who kept themselves in and around the play-off places for almost the entirety of the season. However, their last few efforts haven’t been great, which is why they come into the post-season games having won none of their last three. Fortunately for the hosts, much of the same can be said for Albacete, who lost each of their final two regular season matches.
Mallorca will be very happy that this first leg is being played at Iberostar Stadium, as there has been a huge contrast between results at home and away for the Balearic side. On their travels, Mallorca managed to win only four out of 21 during the regular season, accumulating a total of 20 points, though on their own patch, they emerged victorious from 15 of their 21 games, while they accumulated a pleasing total of 49 points in front of a home crowd. Only champions Osasuna claimed more points at home than Mallorca, while only Osasuna won more and lost less at home. In addition, Vicente Moreno’s men ended the season as the highest scorers on home soil with 35 goals.
However, while the visitors aren’t the easiest side to get the better of, their overall numbers make them tough to fancy in the betting. Not only have Lugo scored just 0.65 goals on average away from home this season, but they also average just 0.7 expected goals for. In contrast, Gimnastic average 1.26. What’s more, the hosts have surrendered an average of just 1.0 expected goals at home, while Lugo have given up an average of 1.43 on the road.
Add in the fact that the hosts come into this game having scored five in their last two at home, couple it with the fact that Lugo are without a goal in two on the road, and it’s becomes very easy to make a case for a home win. Frankly, Gimnastic’s home efforts, especially in the final third, outweigh Lugo’s antics on the road, so much so that the home win looks more likely than the current prices suggest.
In the betting, there’s not too much between the pair; Tenerife are slight favourites but nothing more, which may seem fair given that they’re close together in the table. However, if we examine their respective home and away efforts more closely, then it’s easy to feel that a bet on the hosts represents a slither of value.
From a defensive point of view, the Tenerife have offered more at home than Zaragoza have on the road. The hosts average 1.05 goals and 1.07 expected goals against, while the visitors have surrendered averages of 1.45 and 1.43. Tenerife also average 1.31 expected goals for, which without being great, is far better than Zaragoza’s average of 0.88 on the road. Given such facts, it’s easy to feel that the hosts should be shorter in the betting, so backing ‘Tenerife to Win’ at the current prices is a viable option.