Roma have been given a cushy draw for the last 16 of the Coppa Italia, as they welcome third-tier opposition on Monday night. The club are aiming to end their run without silverware, as it’s coming up on 11 years since their last trophy. The club’s best chance comes in the Coppa Italia, which could be the perfect competition for a side like the Giallorossi. They’ve got some problems with consistency in the league, which has left them down in sixth. However, Eusebio Di Francesco’s side have impressed in Europe. The visitors aren’t quite Torino, they’re a side who are fifth in the Italian third tier, a division which is split into three groups of 20 sides each. It’s not a huge endorsement of their ability, so it’s no surprise that the visitors are massive underdogs ahead of this visit to the capital. They’re still a long way from promotion to the second tier, so stepping up to eliminate a Champions League side is going to take a herculean effort from the visitors. Roma should be expected to win easily, given that they’ve averaged 2.67 goals per game at home to Serie A sides this season. They’ve racked up goals against top European teams here in the last 12 months, so we expect them to stroll past the visitors. However, the hosts do have an issue with their defence, which has been far too leaky so far. They have conceded 1.56 goals per game at home, and the visitors have recently troubled Serie A opposition. Virtus Entella won a penalty shoot-out after a 3-3 draw with Genoa in the last round. That shows their issues at the back, but they can also score goals against sides from the top flight. We can see them scoring in this trip, but with Roma scoring close to three goals per game against top tier sides, I don’t see this as much of a contest. As a result, over 3.5 goals is our tip for what should be an entertaining tie on Monday night.
Atalanta have invested in their squad to build up depth. They wanted a season where they could compete on multiple fronts, with a Europa League run their aim. their European adventure came to an early end in the summer, but they could be a threat in this competition. They’ve looked impressive in recent months, having turned a corner. They lost to Cagliari early this season, but that came during an awful run which left the club in relegation danger. Now they’re pushing for sixth, and potentially more. Atalanta have the option of making changes here, but it’s hard to say that’s going to leave them weakened. They should be just as strong up front, which has been a real weapon for them of late. They’ve been no strangers to a high scoring clash, with 80% of their away league games seeing at least three goals scored. They’ve failed to keep a clean sheet on the road, while Cagliari have saved 59% of their league goals for their home games. The visitors have seen both teams score in eight of their last nine matches in Serie A, while it has landed in 80% of their away games overall. They’ve failed to keep a clean sheet in six straight visits to Sardinia, so we see goals as a likely outcome in this one. Both teams to score is our tip, while we see last season’s semi-finalists in this competition progressing to the last eight on Monday.
Things haven’t exactly been going well for Genoa of late; they’ve failed to win any of their last eight matches, six of which they’ve lost. In the previous round, Genoa welcomed second-tier Lecce to Stadio Luigi Ferraris and cruised to a 4-0 victory. On that occasion, the Serie A side exerted control, as they clocked 23 shots at goal and emerged victorious with 2.71 expected goals for. Thursday’s hosts have lost just twice at home, while their underlying numbers are respectable. Jurić’s men are averaging 1.44 expected goals for, while they’re giving up just 1.08 at the other end. Furthermore, if they repeat their efforts when clocking 2.15 expected goals against Sampdoria in their most recent home match, then the visitors won’t stand much of a chance on Thursday evening. Away from home in their own division, Entella have done well this season, though such form doesn’t exactly count for much ahead of an away match against top-tier opponents. In 2016, they were beaten 3-0 away against Chievo, while their trip to face Cagliari a year before that ended in a 5-0 defeat. This should not be difficult for Genoa.
Tomorrow is not a good day for predictions. I only know the City well, but 1.3 is a very low rate. My good friend said to put on Sampdoria. He likes Italian football and praises this team very much. Do you think it's a good choice?
I watch Juventus matches, but tomorrow I will watch match Sampdoria - SPAL. The guest team loses to almost everyone, so I don’t think they need the Italian Cup.