Leeds have been playing OK at home with a 90% chance of scoring a goal, Derby also have the same 90% chance of scoring away from home and with both teams at the top half of the table it looks to be a match ending with both teams scoring.
Leeds lost out in the FA Cup Third Round last weekend, crashing out at QPR. While an early cup exit isn’t the worst thing for a Premier League hopeful, that result extended a poor run for the Elland Road side. Their second premature exit in a cup this season has left them on the back of a three-game losing streak. Now they host a Derby side who are pushing for a top flight spot themselves. When the pair met at Pride Park, Marcelo Bielsa’s experience and Leeds’ momentum brought them a thumping win over Derby. This time around, it seems like Leeds face a sterner test. The hosts have set the pace in the Championship this term, but they’ve lost back to back league games in comprehensive fashion. Their last home game saw a loss to Hull, which may have come down to fatigue after a busy Christmas period. We have pointed to their style of play in the past, saying that a fixture pile-up would cause problems. Perhaps the week break, weakened starting line-up last weekend and lack of cup fixtures moving forward will boost their promotion challenge. However, will it help them this weekend? They face a major rival, a Derby side who have been basically ever-present in the top six. They sit just six points shy of the top two, so their hopes of making it into the Premier League through automatic promotion stay strong. Frank Lampard’s maiden season in club management has been a success so far, bringing cup success alongside a solid league campaign. However, defensive frailties have been a real issue this season. They were 2-0 down in the FA Cup after 48 minutes, needing a late rally to force a replay. They saw plenty of high scoring games in their Carabao Cup run, something which has been present in the league, too. They’ve seen at least three goals in 62% of their league matches, a run which has seen them hit 20 goals on the road this season, the majority of their league total. However, they’ve also conceded the majority of their goals away in some high scoring trips. Overall, they’ve seen both teams score in 77% of their away matches, form which we expect to continue against a strong Leeds side who have hit a difficult run. The Rams have scored in 85% of their trips, form we’re backing to continue here. They’ve found the net in eight straight away games, while Leeds have scored in 92% of their Championship games. The hosts are among the league’s top scorers, while their last three meetings with Derby have seen both teams score. The visitors have seen both teams score in eight of their last nine away trips in all competitions, so we’re backing BTTS here.
Derby have won 6 drawn 2 and lost 5 of their 13 league away games played, and sit 6th in the Championship with 43 points, drawing their last league game played 1-1 at home against Middlesbrough. Derby have scored 38 goals and conceded 32 goals in their 26 league games played. Leeds have won 8 drawn 3 and lost 2 of their 13 home league games played, and sit Top of the Championship with 51 points, losing their last league game played 4-2 away against Nottingham Forest. Leeds have scored 44 goals and conceded 28 goals in their 26 league games played. Leeds have already beaten Derby 1-4 away this season, the last 3 meeting have seen both teams scoring, with last season results 2-2 and 1-2 this fixture . I am taking both teams to score in this game tonight.
League leaders Leeds have lost their last 2 games conceding 6 goals and even with them scoring in 24 of their 26 matches and winning 7 in a row before the 2 defeats I expect this to be a draw against visitors Derby (currently 6th place) who have only lost once in last 7 in The Championship and managed a good comeback on Saturday in the F.A.Cup clash against Sunderland to get the 1-1 draw.