Plymouth have started to win games of late, though it’s easy to feel that they’ve been a tad fortunate. For example, against Coventry at the weekend, the Pilgrims came out of the game with an expected goal difference of -0.69. It would be wrong to say that they absolutely deserved to lose, as they battled hard and showed great determination, though in terms of chances created, it’s fair to say that their win was a fortunate one. Fortunately, Plymouth have generally done a good job of creating more than their opponents on home soil, even if they do give plenty away in the defensive third. Derek Adams’ men have bettered their opponents in six of their last seven matches at Home Park. During that time, they’ve averaged a pleasing 2.22 expected goals for during that time, though they’ve given up an average of 1.41 at the other end. The fact that they can certainly create more than their opponents is positive, but they’re no doubt still leaving themselves a tad too exposed as far as Adams is concerned. When it comes to being useful going forward and not so useful at the back, Walsall fit the bill too. Tuesday’s visitors come here of the back of a rare clean sheet after beating Gillingham by three goals to nil at the weekend, which will have allowed confidence levels to rise, though they don’t often keep their opponents out on the road. The visitors had conceded nine in four away matches prior to Saturday’s win, while they’re currently surrendering an average of 1.66 expected goals on their travels, which certainly doesn’t scream defensive solidity. Given that both teams are clearly capable in the final third and yet somewhat weak at the back, over 2.5 goals looks a tad overpriced. As there’s been an average of 3.38 expected goals in Plymouth’s home matches, as well as 3.05 in Walsall’s travelling games, backing the goals to arrive at Home Park on Tuesday evening is the way to go.
Plymouth have started to win games of late, though it’s easy to feel that they’ve been a tad fortunate. For example, against Coventry at the weekend, the Pilgrims came out of the game with an expected goal difference of -0.69. It would be wrong to say that they absolutely deserved to lose, as they battled hard and showed great determination, though in terms of chances created, it’s fair to say that their win was a fortunate one.
Fortunately, Plymouth have generally done a good job of creating more than their opponents on home soil, even if they do give plenty away in the defensive third. Derek Adams’ men have bettered their opponents in six of their last seven matches at Home Park. During that time, they’ve averaged a pleasing 2.22 expected goals for during that time, though they’ve given up an average of 1.41 at the other end. The fact that they can certainly create more than their opponents is positive, but they’re no doubt still leaving themselves a tad too exposed as far as Adams is concerned.
When it comes to being useful going forward and not so useful at the back, Walsall fit the bill too. Tuesday’s visitors come here of the back of a rare clean sheet after beating Gillingham by three goals to nil at the weekend, which will have allowed confidence levels to rise, though they don’t often keep their opponents out on the road. The visitors had conceded nine in four away matches prior to Saturday’s win, while they’re currently surrendering an average of 1.66 expected goals on their travels, which certainly doesn’t scream defensive solidity.
Given that both teams are clearly capable in the final third and yet somewhat weak at the back, over 2.5 goals looks a tad overpriced. As there’s been an average of 3.38 expected goals in Plymouth’s home matches, as well as 3.05 in Walsall’s travelling games, backing the goals to arrive at Home Park on Tuesday evening is the way to go.