However, while the visitors aren’t the easiest side to get the better of, their overall numbers make them tough to fancy in the betting. Not only have Lugo scored just 0.65 goals on average away from home this season, but they also average just 0.7 expected goals for. In contrast, Gimnastic average 1.26. What’s more, the hosts have surrendered an average of just 1.0 expected goals at home, while Lugo have given up an average of 1.43 on the road.
Add in the fact that the hosts come into this game having scored five in their last two at home, couple it with the fact that Lugo are without a goal in two on the road, and it’s becomes very easy to make a case for a home win. Frankly, Gimnastic’s home efforts, especially in the final third, outweigh Lugo’s antics on the road, so much so that the home win looks more likely than the current prices suggest.
However, while the visitors aren’t the easiest side to get the better of, their overall numbers make them tough to fancy in the betting. Not only have Lugo scored just 0.65 goals on average away from home this season, but they also average just 0.7 expected goals for. In contrast, Gimnastic average 1.26. What’s more, the hosts have surrendered an average of just 1.0 expected goals at home, while Lugo have given up an average of 1.43 on the road.
Add in the fact that the hosts come into this game having scored five in their last two at home, couple it with the fact that Lugo are without a goal in two on the road, and it’s becomes very easy to make a case for a home win. Frankly, Gimnastic’s home efforts, especially in the final third, outweigh Lugo’s antics on the road, so much so that the home win looks more likely than the current prices suggest.