The hosts have failed to score in their last four home games, which has led to their last six games here seeing under 2.5 goals. Meanwhile, this Genoa side are slowing down themselves. Without Krzysztof Piatek, Genoa seem toothless going forward. They’ve scored more than once on one occasion in their last 14 games. In those 14 clashes, they’ve scored just seven times in total. On the road, Genoa have seen seven of their last eight games finish with fewer than three goals. That’s why we’re backing a cagey game in this face-off, so under 2.5 goals is our pick.
The visitors have been in mixed form on the road in 2019, but they have scored in seven of nine away trips in Serie A since the turn of the year. They come here looking to edge out a SPAL side who have the fourth-worst home record in the league. Despite that, the hosts have managed to score in their last seven here, during which they’ve faced Napoli, Juventus, Lazio and Roma. SPAL have scored in their last 10 league games, so we expect them to find the net against this desperate Milan outfit. We’re backing both teams to score when these two meet on Sunday.
AC Milan’s Krzysztof Piatek (currently on nine goals with the Rossoneri) could become the first player in Serie A history to score at least 10 goals with two different teams in the same league season (scored 13 with Genoa). He hit one of those Genoa goals against SPAL in the first half of the campaign, while he returned to form last weekend with a goal. We see Milan relying on the forward in this trip, so we’re backing Piatek to score here.