Zimbabwe have failed to win their last three games, while their qualifying campaign for this tournament was far from stellar. They claimed only two victories from their final five games, losing 1-0 at Liberia in November. Meanwhile, Uganda had their place at the tournament wrapped up with a game to spare after winning four of their first five matches. Given that form building up to this tournament, they are a side to watch this summer.
Uganda pulled off another big result ahead of the tournament, as they beat Ivory Coast 1-0 earlier this month. That was followed by their opening win over DR Congo, which leaves us expecting a lot from the Cranes in this clash. We see them beating a Zimbabwe side who have lost their last three games at the Africa Cup of Nations. Uganda to win is well priced ahead of this clash, while it’s our tip for Wednesday’s encounter.
Guinea are aiming to make the most of their talented, European based players. They have a squad which should reach the last eight at least, so they need to start this straightforward game with three points. Given Madagascar’s defensive record and their recent losing form, we are backing Guinea to claim the points. Despite the obvious gap in quality, Guinea are well priced to secure three points in this game.
Both of these sides kicked off their time in Brazil in underwhelming fashion over the weekend, which has left them with a fight to make it into the second round. Peru are hopeful of building on their displays at the 2018 World Cup with success at this competition, but if they should slip up to Bolivia this week then their chances of going through are all but over. Can they defy the odds to leave Peru on the verge of the exit?
Bolivia were involved in the tournament’s opener, as they were beaten 3-0 by Brazil. It was a fourth straight loss for them, following up their poor form in the warm-up games ahead of the tournament. That comes after their difficult qualifying campaign for the World Cup, so it has hardly been a golden period for Bolivian football. They are really struggling to make an impact, having lost six successive Copa America ties.
Peru are coming off the back of a trip to the World Cup, while its not long since they recorded back to back 3rd place finishes at the Copa America. They are aiming to return to the World Cup in 2022, while they have a fine record at this tournament. They have lost just one of their last 10 matches in the Copa America and that came against Chile as they went on to win the tournament in 2015.
In the betting, ‘Albania to Score Over 1.5 Goals’ looks somewhat overpriced. The Albanians haven’t quite got going in this campaign yet, but they did score three goals against Andorra, while some of their attacking efforts in front of their own fans in the Nations League suggest that they can really hurt the Moldovan’s, who’ve looked very poor at the back against any side with the slightest bit about them going forward.
At the end of the day, this is a huge opportunity for Albania to boost their confidence levels and they’re back to take that opportunity to by scoring at least twice against a visiting side that conceded four goals and 3.64 expected goals last time out on the road.
Atletico Mineiro arrive in great spirits after getting the better of Santos and will be looking for a repeat outcome once again on Sunday. Galo had been in poor condition earlier on in the year, crashing out of the Copa Libertadores at the group stage but boss Rodrigo Santana has done a good job since coming in and has the team looking a slick unit.
Indeed, Atletico are currently 2nd in the league with 15 points from 7 matches and Santana is getting the best out of what is undoubtedly a talented set of players. Having now won 4 of their last 6 matches, the visitors won’t be approaching this game in apprehensive state and will be targeting all 3 points.
Greece don’t have a bad record away from home recently, but the quality of their opposition has hardly been the most testing. They’ve beaten Liechtenstein, Estonia, and Egypt, while losing to Croatia, Saudi Arabia, Hungary, and Finland. Turkey, meanwhile, have won at home against Moldova, Iran, and the Republic of Ireland in the same period, only losing to Russia and Sweden.
On the balance of things, Turkey’s home advantage and more experienced squad should be enough to get them a win on Thursday, so we’re backing that along with a 1-0 correct score prediction.
Chelsea gets an early goal, Hazard shows a bit more of magic late as the Blues edge the Gunners.
Udinese head to Sardinia with 11 losses in 18 away trips, while they’ve lost seven of their last nine away games. They have one of the worst away records in the league – alongside Cagliari. The points breakdown is certainly interesting, as Udinese have won 72% of their points at home, while Cagliari have picked up 73% of their points at their own ground. When you add in Cagliari’s recent dominance of this fixture – four straight wins at home to Udinese – we’re siding with the hosts.
The visitors have two away wins this season – both of which came against the already-relegated bottom two. Against sides above the relegation zone, Udinese have four draws and 11 defeats in 15. That poor record isn’t great compared to Cagliari, who have a brilliant bottom half record at this ground so far. In eight games they’ve won seven, which has us backing the hosts for three points this weekend.
Rennes were very lucky to keep a clean sheet last week and because of that we’re backing Lille to put quite a few past the home side here. Lille have scored 22 goals in their last eight games and with Rennes conceding 14 goals in their last eight games, we’re backing the away side to score over 1.5 goals. Lille have conceded in three of their last four away games though and with Rennes in good scoring form we’re backing both teams to score in what we’re expecting will finish as a 3-1 victory for the away side.
Frosinone have picked up four of their five wins this season in away matches. However, they are a side who have troubled mid-table opponents this season. Their record overall is 10 defeats in 18 trips, while they’re likely to finish up with another loss. Milan have won all but one of their meetings with the bottom eight here, while the Rossoneri come into this one on the back of consecutive victories.
Milan are heavy favourites for the win, which shouldn’t be much of a problem given that they are looking strong at the back and improving up front. They are facing a Frosinone side who have lost all of their away trips to the top eight so far, with their visits to the top five bringing two 3-0 losses and three 4-0 defeats. Given that poor scoring record, we’re backing Milan to claim a win to nil on Sunday, with Frosinone scoring just three times in 11 meetings with the top six so far.
The visitors can be confident of edging the tie. 16 of the last 18 sides to win the first leg of a Championship play-off semi-final have gone on to progress through to the final, with the only exceptions being Derby County last season (vs Fulham) and Leicester City in 2012/13 (vs Watford). Meanwhile, West Brom are going to really miss Gayle. The Baggies have just a 33% win rate without Gayle in all competitions this season (four wins from 12 games), compared to a 54% win rate with him in the side (22 wins from 41 games).
We expect West Brom to still have a presence in attack – they scored in 96% of their home league games this season – but their big game record could let them down. The Baggies beat one of the top seven here last season, shipping 12 goals in that time. Meanwhile, Villa’s only defeats away to the top 10 came at the top two. The visitors scored in all of those clashes, finding the net in 89% of their league games. With that in mind, we think both teams to score is great value, as it landed in 83% of West Brom’s home outings. We also see the Baggies’ home woes going against them, as we’re backing another Villa win.
Bologna saw their progress stopped last week, as they lost 2-1 at AC Milan. However, that defeat was a narrow one. They caused problems at San Siro, while they showed a threat that was missing in their dour 0-0 draw with Milan in their last home game. That’s where Sinisa Mihajlovic has made the difference. In improving their attacking threat, he’s managed to get Bologna out of danger and clear of the drop zone.
Their home results have shown their improvement under the new boss, as Bologna have managed to win their last five at this ground. They’ve scored at least twice in each of those, which should help to see off a Parma side who have failed to win in eight. We think that the Rossoblu’s winning run at home will continue, while they’re brilliantly priced to secure a victory against an out of form Parma outfit.
They have scored eleven goals in their last five games and while their defence has leaked nine times over that period, the attacking flair of Denis Bouanga and Renaud Ripart has been a joy to watch. They have both scored three times in their last six games and look on top form, a key part of Nîmes’ recent success.
Nîmes also have a terrific home record which could be beneficial for them, and detrimental to Monaco. They are unbeaten since January at the Stade des Costières with five wins and two draws in their last seven games there. They have won each of their last three and with the spirits high we’re backing them to continue that against Monaco. Les Monegasques have scored twelve goals in their last nine away games but with just one win in that time, we’re backing a 2-1 victory for Nîmes. We’re also backing Nîmes to score over 1.5 goals as Monaco have conceded 14 goals in their last eight away days while the Crocodiles have scored over 1.5 goals in their last five home games.
Valencia will be going all out to overturn a 3-1 first-leg deficit when entertaining Arsenal in the Europa League and do have a superb record at the Mestalla.
Los Che beat Manchester United and Young Boys here in the Champions League this season and have won eight straight at home in this competition.
With the Gunners widely regarded as poor travellers, the Spanish side look worthy favourites to prevail on the night at 91/100 for our initial Valencia vs Arsenal prediction.
Ivory Coast also made a winning start to the tournament, securing a 1-0 victory over South Africa. They’re in a similar position to Morocco, starting with a narrow win and hoping to improve. Aston Villa’s Jonathan Kodjia opened the scoring, but given that they have £150million of attacking talent to flank him in the shape of Nicolas Pepe and Wilfried Zaha more will be expected going forward.