Luton seem to be unstoppable as they seek promotion to the championship. There home form has been incredible with 42points (13wins and 3Draws) in 16 games (scoring 41 and conceding 11). The 3 draws were against promotion chasing teams Barnsley, Charlton and Sunderland in there first home game of the season. I would fancy Luton to win at home against any team outside the playoffs, and with Coventry losing 8 of there last 10 away games in all competitions it makes Luton even more appealing.
Doncaster are in 6th place and have only lost 2 home league games this season. They have won 5 of their latest 8 matches with only one defeat in them. They have home advantage here. They can defeat Southend who have financial concerns and are not playing well lately and have lost 4 of their latest 6 games with just one win in those games.
Oxford Utd have scored 22 goals in 14 home games played in the League One. They should find the net against Barnsley that are conceding more than once per average match on the road. Still Barnsley are among the best in the league in scoring with 49 goals in 28 games played. They have scored 4 goals in the first head-to-head match against Oxford Utd this season and should find the net more than once again. A high scoring match is probable.
Plymouth have started to win games of late, though it’s easy to feel that they’ve been a tad fortunate. For example, against Coventry at the weekend, the Pilgrims came out of the game with an expected goal difference of -0.69. It would be wrong to say that they absolutely deserved to lose, as they battled hard and showed great determination, though in terms of chances created, it’s fair to say that their win was a fortunate one. Fortunately, Plymouth have generally done a good job of creating more than their opponents on home soil, even if they do give plenty away in the defensive third. Derek Adams’ men have bettered their opponents in six of their last seven matches at Home Park. During that time, they’ve averaged a pleasing 2.22 expected goals for during that time, though they’ve given up an average of 1.41 at the other end. The fact that they can certainly create more than their opponents is positive, but they’re no doubt still leaving themselves a tad too exposed as far as Adams is concerned. When it comes to being useful going forward and not so useful at the back, Walsall fit the bill too. Tuesday’s visitors come here of the back of a rare clean sheet after beating Gillingham by three goals to nil at the weekend, which will have allowed confidence levels to rise, though they don’t often keep their opponents out on the road. The visitors had conceded nine in four away matches prior to Saturday’s win, while they’re currently surrendering an average of 1.66 expected goals on their travels, which certainly doesn’t scream defensive solidity. Given that both teams are clearly capable in the final third and yet somewhat weak at the back, over 2.5 goals looks a tad overpriced. As there’s been an average of 3.38 expected goals in Plymouth’s home matches, as well as 3.05 in Walsall’s travelling games, backing the goals to arrive at Home Park on Tuesday evening is the way to go.
Table leaders Portsmouth take on 11th placed Blackpool here and Blackpool are struggling to find form with 9 wins from 25 against a 17 of 26 record for Portsmouth. Portsmouth beat two teams that Blackpool lost and drew with, so it looks a reasonable assumption that they will have the edge at home. Portsmouth have won 6 of their last 7 games in all competitions and they have won 3 of their last 4 games against Blackpool. Besides, Blackpool are in poor form with 7 consecutive games without a win. Portsmouth to win here.