Regensburg haven’t exactly thrived in their attempts to build on last seasons’ 5th-place finish, though they’ve been far from poor. They currently sit in a respectable 8th place. As they’re ten points below the coveted 3rd position, it looks as though a tilt at promotion will be beyond Jahn, but they haven’t allowed that to prevent some decent efforts of late. Having avoided defeat in each of their last four, two of which they’ve won, Monday’s hosts ought to be feeling confident ahead of this match.
Unfortunately, it’s tough to see how Furth’s rear-guard will stop the hosts, who’re no slouches against weak teams. The visitors have shipped an average of two goals per away game this season, and have conceded an average of 1.5 expected goals. Moreover, they’ve kept just one away-day clean sheet since August and have conceded two or more goals in seven of their last ten on the road. Given the above, there are two bets that stand out ahead of this match. ‘Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score’ looks ever so slightly overpriced, as does ‘Regensburg to Win & Both Teams to Score’. Furth have struggled for goals on the road, there can be no denying that, though they ought to be suited by the way the hosts are likely to set up, while clean sheets have been very hard to come by for Jahn, who’ve given an awful lot away, even on home soil. Jahn have the tools necessary to get the win on Monday night, but given their defensive exploits this season, don’t expect them to do it the easy way.
The last couple of performances of Jahn have been pleasing; they were unlucky not to beat Duisburg when drawing last time out. At the very least, the fact that they emerged from the game with an expected goal difference of +1.43 tells us that they were far better than their opponents in terms of creating scoring opportunities. Prior to that, they battled hard to secure victory away against Heidenheim. In front of their own fans, Regensburg have looked like a useful side going forward, but they’ve found it tough to keep things tight at the back. Monday’s hosts come into this fixture having conceded at least once in each of their last three at Continental Arena, while they’ve kept just a single clean sheet in their last ten on home soil. Add in the fact that they’re averaging 1.49 expected-goals against and have recently surrendered numbers of 1.19, 2.35, 1.93, 1.19 and 2.27 and it’s easy to conclude that they’re far from astute defensively. Fortunately, they’re averaging 1.58 expected goals for at home, so all is not lost.
On the face of it, Hamburg are struggling; they’re without a win in two and have dropped off their lofty perch. That said, their performances haven’t exactly been terrible, so we shouldn’t overreact to recent goings on. Monday’s hosts couldn’t take anything from their game against Regensburg last time out, but they were easily the better side and were thus unlucky to lose. The fact that they recorded 2.35 expected goals for and ended the game with a+0.55 expected goal difference tells us that they really shouldn’t have gone home empty handed. What’s more, when they faced Heidenheim prior to that, Wolf’s men created 2.41 expected goals for and conceded just 0.74, so it’s easy to say that they were desperately unfortunate not to come out on top. Results haven’t gone their way over the last few weeks but Die Rothosen will take confidence from the fact that they’ve played reasonably well. In addition to some decent efforts despite results going against them, Hamburg have been very tough to beat at this venue. Monday’s hosts have lost just twice at home this season and are now without defeat at Volksparkstadion since September. They’ve since kept five clean sheets out of seven and have conceded more than once on just one occasion during that time. Moreover, they’ve conceded an average of just 0.98 expected goals since their last defeat on home soil, which suggests that they’ve not exactly been giving up plenty of chances. At the other end, they’ve averaged 1.43 expected goals for since their last home defeat. While Hamburg have seemingly found it easy to avoid defeat at home in recent times, Furth have found it very, very tough to get their heads in front on the road. Monday’s visitors are now without a win in seven away matches, five of which they’ve lost. During that time, they’ve failed to find the net on six occasions. Scoring goals is becoming a real problem for Furth on the road. They’ve found the back of the net in just six of their last seven travelling matches, while they’ve averaged a rather dismal 0.67 expected goals for during that time, so we can’t exactly say that they’ve been unlucky to find the net on so few occasions. Not only have the visitors struggled to get going offensively on the road, but they’ve also done little to prevent their opponents from doing well in that respect. Furth come into this match having kept just two clean sheets in their last ten on the road, while they’ve shipping an average of 1.56 expected goals, which suggests that they’ve consistently conceded way more than they’ve created.
Hamburg haven’t exactly made a habit of blowing teams away since dropping down to the second division, but they’ve been tough to beat, while they’ve certainly made a habit of grinding out results on a regular basis, which is why they’re currently top of the table. Considering that they had a man sent off early doors, Monday’s hosts can be forgiven for their latest league defeat, especially since their recent performances at this venue have been very pleasing. In general, Hamburg have been strong on their own patch. They’ve won three of their last four at home and are now unbeaten in six at this venue. Impressively, they’ve bettered their opponents in terms of expected goals in five of those six, while they recorded an impressive expected-goals for total of 2.19 when last in league action at Volksparkstadion. In contrast, Dresden have found it tough to hit their stride on the road. Monday’s visitors come into this fixture having lost away against Heidenheim last time out, while they’ve now won just one of their last seven on the road. During that time, they’ve suffered some heavy defeats, losing 8-1 away against Koln and 3-0 away against Paderborn. Barring those two defeats, they’ve kept things respectable, but they struggle for forward potency.
St. Pauli have lost just twice at home this season, while they’re now unbeaten in four at Millerntor-Stadion. Overall, Markus Kauczinski’s men have done a pleasing job of creating more than they’ve given away at home; they’ve averaged 1.59 expected goals for and have surrendered an average of 1.24 expected goals. Moreover, they’ve scored twice on average per home match and have conceded 1.24 at the other end. Such numbers tell us that they’ve probably been lucky to score quite as many as they have, but they also tell us that St. Pauli are reasonably useful.
Prior to the winter break, St. Pauli looked in good shape. They got the better of Bochum, Furth and Magdeburg in quick succession, which allowed them to shoot up into a flattering position inside the top three. However, they lost when returning to action, which allowed Monday’s opponents, who beat Koln first game back, to overtake them in the table. That said, Union are only ahead of St. Pauli on goal difference, so Monday’s hosts won’t feel too disheartened, as a win here would see them regain third position.
Hamburg are side who are going full steam ahead. Der HSV are unbeaten in 11 after their 2-1 win away to MSV Duisburg on Friday, a result that kept them one point above Cologne in the tight Bundesliga II title race. Notably, Hamburg have been able to maintain such form even without top scorer Pierre-Michel Lasogga, who has been out since mid-November. Out of both teams, you have to like the look of Hamburg to get a result here, and backing them to win looks the smart bet. Hamburg have been hugely consistent in front of goal in recent weeks too, scoring at least two goals in four of their last five in the league, which will put plenty of pressure on a Kiel defense that has conceded exactly two goals in three of their last five at the Holstein-Stadion, as well as failing to keep a clean sheet there all season.